Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.610579 3.911972 4.242369 4.634444 5.091057 5.611190 6.256127
2025-02-09 3.241051 3.646564 4.121463 4.729330 5.503370 6.481312 7.855845
2025-02-16 2.950389 3.397097 3.942355 4.675905 5.669838 7.026175 9.136314
2025-02-23 2.744511 3.215419 3.808697 4.638887 5.822818 7.550205 10.504826
2025-03-02 2.578692 3.062919 3.688633 4.593012 5.940155 8.026366 11.932113
2025-03-09 2.442219 2.934145 3.583490 4.548508 6.042492 8.486863 13.488688
2025-03-16 2.338183 2.838686 3.512487 4.540473 6.192523 9.049473 15.482868
2025-03-23 2.272624 2.789123 3.498905 4.612494 6.476909 9.911846 18.616348
2025-03-30 2.169247 2.680171 3.391364 4.527161 6.480088 10.235276 20.603694
2025-04-06 2.075781 2.579529 3.288565 4.438663 6.463681 10.513252 22.669315
2025-04-13 1.973865 2.461824 3.153486 4.286611 6.312691 10.471196 23.704160
2025-04-20 1.936744 2.434374 3.150478 4.349254 6.566874 11.396310 29.120478
2025-04-27 1.923509 2.441449 3.201166 4.508840 7.039435 13.024391 40.573585
2025-05-04 1.895116 2.424599 3.213530 4.603465 7.399723 14.528714 56.415644
2025-05-11 1.836962 2.360570 3.147604 4.552548 7.443056 15.153191 68.890383
2025-05-18 1.786355 2.305607 3.092936 4.517149 7.515294 15.904233 87.813625
2025-05-25 1.737516 2.251256 3.036283 4.473262 7.561998 16.601171 113.850686
2025-06-01 1.692131 2.200369 2.982636 4.430674 7.605918 17.319545 154.003702
2025-06-08 1.656345 2.162787 2.948842 4.422984 7.732697 18.422757 247.537134
2025-06-15 1.636979 2.149674 2.954648 4.491902 8.060942 20.559074 775.221869
2025-06-22 1.591447 2.094143 2.886699 4.410242 7.991492 20.927825 1688.284037
2025-06-29 1.547706 2.040135 2.819262 4.325505 7.904274 21.191769 6751.816346
2025-07-06 1.495212 1.971036 2.723968 4.179803 7.639867 20.496823 6985.190941